Pixar to the Rescue! ‘Incredibles 2’ Sets Records, and Revives Hope for the Summer Box Office
Tom Brueggemann
With an $180 million opening weekend, Pixar’s “Incredibles 2” set indisputable opening records. Perhaps even better: it countered any fears stoked by “Solo: A Star Wars Story” that no franchise was safe.
A $125 million opening for “Incredibles 2” would have been excellent. It’s been more than decade later since the original, which grossed less than “Finding Nemo.” However, this sequel opened close to 20 percent better than the record-breaking sequel “Finding Dory.” It also bested the even-bigger openings for the second and third “Shrek” films (adjusted, both around $160 million).
We don’t see many films that qualify as “best evers,” but “Incredibles 2” is one of them.
It is the second-biggest June opening ever, falling about $50 million short of “Jurassic World.” Among PG-rated films, it is just behind last year’s live-action “Beauty and the Beast” — which it could best when Sunday totals are more than estimates.
The gross looks even better when compared to other recent Pixar releases. At $180 million, that’s just $30 million less than “Coco” made in its entire run, and $24 million more than the total gross for “Cars 3” last June. Based on typical multiples for top Pixar titles, the total gross should approach $600 million; at $650 million, it would equal “Shrek 2.”
There was more great news for Pixar in international openings. The World Cup impacts that calendar, and only about a quarter of countries opened, but at $51 million they were strong. This is significant, since lately Pixar has seen weakness in its releases compared to the top animated films from Universal and 20th Century Fox.
Elsewhere, two wide openers had combined earnings of barely 11 percent of “Incredibles 2.” The stronger was “Tag,” an action/comedy with Jon Hamm, Jeremy Renner, and Ed Helms aimed for Fathers Day, which managed $14.6 million. Not awful, and better still with its $28 million budget, but it will need to have a decent hold and some future foreign interest to score.
“Superfly,” a remake of the 1972 renegade blaxploitation film, opened Wednesday with an $8.4 million five-day total. It cost up to $20 million (some estimates lower) and will have little international appeal, so might have to depend on a heftier post-theatrical boost.
Overall, the weekend will come in close to $270 million as the third best for the year (trailing opening weekends for “Black Panther” and “Avengers: Infinity War.”) That boosts year-to-date totals to more than six percent over 2017. “Jurassic World: Fallen World” opens in North America next weekend, and it’s already at $370 million overseas. It remains to be seen if it will be closer to “Solo” or “Incredibles 2” in domestic appeal, but after this big weekend there’s a sense that for top titles, the interest is still there.
The second weekend of “Ocean’s 8” dropped 53 percent, about the same as “Ocean’s 12.” The industry norm is that female-centric titles often hold second weekends better; “The Book Club” fell only 25 percent its second weekend, but “Ocean’s” was likely hurt by the broad appeal of “Incredibles 2.”
Expect “Ocean’s 8” to reach $110 million-$115 million domestic. That’s the lowest adjusted for the franchise, but with equal foreign interest (due to typical shortfall for female titles) it will be a gamble that paid off for Warner Bros.
The surprise this weekend was “Hereditary” (A24), which despite a D+ Cinemascore, held in respectably. The $10 million production, with likely lower than typical marketing costs, is up to $27 million, and should make $35 million domestic at a minimum. That would be $10 million more than “The Witch” and “Ex-Machina,” and nearly triple “It Comes at Night,” all previous A24 genre releases.
The Top Ten
1. Incredibles 2 (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A+; Metacritic: 80; Est. budget: $200 million (unconfirmed)
$180,000,000 in 4,410 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $40,816; Cumulative: $180,000,000
2. Ocean’s 8 (Warner Bros.) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$19,555,000 (-53%) in 4,145 theaters (no change); PTA: $4,718; Cumulative: $79,175,000
3. Tag (Warner Bros.) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 57; Est. budget: $28 billion
$14,600,000 in 3,382 theaters; PTA: $4,317; Cumulative: $14,600,000
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #2
$9,081,000 (-42%) in 3,182 theaters (-1,153); PTA: $2,854; Cumulative: $192,845,000
5. Deadpool 2 (20th Century Fox) Week 5; Last weekend #3
$8,800,000 (-38%) in 3,212 theaters (-458); PTA: $2,740; Cumulative: $294,681,000
6. Hereditary (A24) Week 2; Last weekend #4
$7,026,000 (-48%) in 2,998 theaters (+34); PTA: $2,344; Cumulative: $27,187,000
7. Superfly (Sony) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 54; Est. budget: $20 million
$6,300,000 in 2,220 theaters; PTA: $2,838; Cumulative: $8,441,000
8. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Week 8; Last weekend #5
$5,296,000 (-27%) in 2,164 theaters (-718); PTA: $2,447; Cumulative: $664,200,000
9. Adrift (STX) Week 3; Last weekend #6
$2,100,000 (-60%) in 1,929 theaters (-1,086); PTA: $1,089; Cumulative: $26,805,000
10. Book Club (Paramount) Week 5; Last weekend #7
$1,850,000 (-57%) in 1,656 theaters (-1,146); PTA: $1,117; Cumulative: $62,000,000
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